By Jason & Ivette FieldsFirst, the rule that protects you.
Whenever anyone shows you a percentage about a neighborhood, ask how many sales it came from.
Under about 30 sales, it’s noise, not data. Three expensive homes closing in one month and not the next can swing a number ten points.
Our tip. Write it down. It will protect you from most of the real estate content on the internet. We use it on ourselves below.
Seymour: down about 15.6%.
Seymour was a pandemic darling. In 2021, people bought land out there sight unseen. The median is now around $329,000.
It’s not a ghost town. Homes are actually selling faster than last year: 56 days versus 69. It’s a market coming down off a sugar high. Buyers have more room than in five years.
South Knoxville: down 17%, and we’re telling you to ignore it.
On paper, the worst number in the metro: around $305,000. But it’s built on 24 sales in a month. By our own rule, that’s noise. Is it softening a little? Probably. Is it down 17% in any way that affects a real buyer? No.
Maryville, our hometown: the clock changed.
Median around $391,000, essentially flat. The real number is days on market: 43 a year ago, 66 now.
Sellers here are still pricing like it’s 2024. If you’re buying, the leverage came back and most people haven’t noticed. Ask for repairs. Ask for closing costs. If you’re selling, price it for a 66-day market.
Farragut: the price is holding. The pressure isn’t.
Median around $749,000, basically unchanged. But almost a quarter of listings, 24%, cut their price before selling. Only about 20% sold above asking. Three years ago, everything did.
If a quarter of the neighborhood is cutting, the seller staring at day 40 is already having the conversation in his head.
The surprise: fewer students, more people.
Knox County added roughly 30,000 people since 2020, while Knox County Schools went from about 60,000 students to about 58,000.
It matches what we hear at the closing table. More buyers ask about tax rates and drive times. Fewer ask about school zones. That changes which neighborhoods get demand.
Where they went: Clinton and Alcoa.
Clinton is up about 14.5%, Alcoa nearly 10%. That’s where the overflow goes. Buyers priced out of West Knoxville move one ring out.
We had a couple who lost every weekend for four months in West Knoxville. We gave them one Saturday in Clinton. They bought three weeks later.
Our tip. Looking in one area for six weeks and losing? The problem probably isn’t your budget. It’s your map.
Oak Ridge, and the $120,000 argument.
Up almost 4%, median around $400,000, with a floor most towns never get: Oak Ridge National Lab and Y-12.
Zillow may say $280,000 and Redfin $400,000 for the same month. Nobody’s lying. Zillow estimates every house, and many Oak Ridge homes were built before 1979. Redfin shows what actually sold. The number you care about is the one built on sales.
Loudon County: growing on its own.
Up 16% since 2020, more than double Knox County. Supply went from about five months to under four. That’s people arriving faster than anybody can build.
Lenoir City’s median jumped over 20%, but that came from 13 sales. Throw out the percentage. Keep the direction: population and inventory say the same thing.
The tax line nobody explains.
After reappraisal, City of Knoxville went from about $2.16 to $1.40 per $100 of assessed value. Blount County, from $1.59 to $1.29. A lower rate does not mean a lower bill. If your home’s value rose more than average, your bill goes up.
And the Town of Farragut has no town property tax. On a $450,000 home, the city portion inside Knoxville runs about $1,570 a year. In Farragut, that bill doesn’t exist. Over ten years, more than $15,000.
The one nobody’s pricing in: flood risk.
First Street, whose flood data shows on Redfin and Realtor.com, rates Lenoir City’s flood risk as extreme: about 17% of properties. Farragut is rated moderate.
Flood risk means your insurance quote, whether a lender requires a flood policy, and what the next buyer pays. We’re not telling you to avoid Loudon County. The growth is real and people love it there.
Our tip. Pull the flood rating for the exact address before you offer. It’s free, and it’s on the listing page. Extreme isn’t an automatic no. It’s a number you negotiate with.
